Mesoscale Discussion 1688
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes are expected to move through southern Ohio, northern Kentucky, and West Virginia this afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 211615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211615 VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-211815- Mesoscale Discussion 1688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Areas affected...northeast Kentucky...northern West Virginia...and southern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211615Z - 211815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase this afternoon across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky into West Virginia. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in southeast Ohio will likely continue east-southeast into a more unstable airmass along a differential heating zone developing across northern West Virginia. Damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with this cluster. Additional storms are expected to strengthen farther southwest through the afternoon with sufficient shear for some supercell structures. Damaging winds will likely be the main threat with this activity with some large hail potential. In addition, a tornado or two is also possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens this afternoon/evening. A watch will likely be needed within the next 1 to 2 hours to address the threat from the ongoing activity and any additional storms which develop. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 39598231 39898072 39777895 39337864 38837871 38137954 38018075 37938266 38338420 39078413 39598231 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN