Mesoscale Discussion 2293
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are expected to increase across parts of western Kansas and south-central Nebraska through the afternoon and early evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 142009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142009 KSZ000-NEZ000-142245- Mesoscale Discussion 2293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of western Kansas into south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142009Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon into early this evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing a few severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are evolving within a NE/SW-oriented surface trough in southwestern KS, with additional deepening cumulus embedded within a zone of warm advection over north-central KS and south-central NE. In southwestern KS, the modified 18Z DDC sounding depicts steep low/midlevel lapse rates and 30-40 kt of southwesterly flow through the depth of the boundary layer. This will promote robust thunderstorm downdrafts, with a risk of severe wind gusts -- especially with any small clusters that evolve. Farther northeast, thunderstorm development/intensification is more uncertain, given the persistent cloud coverage and showers. Nevertheless, temperatures have warmed into the lower/middle 90s amid 40-45 kt of flow in the lowest 2 km AGL (per UEX VWP data). Therefore, any thunderstorms that mature in this environment will also pose a risk of severe wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. It is unclear if the severe risk will warrant a watch, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38510178 39170114 39870023 40299944 40389891 40349851 40189812 39799788 39499806 37750121 37680174 37830198 38160198 38510178 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN