Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and into the early evening across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas. These storms may produce isolated large hail or damaging wind gusts.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 241616 SWODY1 SPC AC 241614 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ...TX Panhandle into northwest OK and southwest KS... An extensive plume of mid to upper level moisture currently extends from southern High Plains through central Plains into the eastern Dakotas and MN, evidenced by widespread cloudiness and embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms. This plume is supported by moderate southwesterly flow aloft between the upper ridging centered over the Middle/Upper TX coast and lower heights associated with an amplifying upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest. Recent surface analysis shows a corridor of greater low-level moisture (characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints) extending from the TX Low Rolling Plains through the eastern TX and OK Panhandles into far southwest KS. Much of this corridor of greater low-level moisture is just east of the cloudiness (and cooler surface temperatures) associated with the mid/upper moisture plume. This region should continue to heat, with afternoon temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s. Lapse rates are poor, but the warm temperatures and ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This buoyancy combined with low-level convergence (either on outflow from the ongoing showers or as a result of differential heating) will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Vertical shear will be weak across much of the region, and a largely disorganized storm mode is anticipated. However, a few water-loaded downbursts are possible with the strongest cells. Slightly stronger large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear is expected into KS as a weak convectively augmented vorticity maximum moves trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible here as well, although weaker buoyancy should limit overall intensity. Even so, a couple of weak supercells capable of isolated hail and/or damaging gusts may occur. ..Mosier/Chalmers.. 09/24/2026 $$