Mesoscale Discussion 1998
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the central High Plains, including the Colorado Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity. These storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 161834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161833 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-162030- Mesoscale Discussion 1998 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161833Z - 162030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Colorado Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity this afternoon, bringing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts to portions of the central High Plains. DISCUSSION...Aided by strong diurnal heating and easterly, upslope flow with dewpoints near 60 F, widely scattered thunderstorm formation is expected this afternoon along the CO Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity of the central High Plains, with some lightning activity already noted within deeper updrafts as of 1830 UTC. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE (increasing to 2000 J/kg locally by peak heating this afternoon) and 25-35+ kts of effective shear amid modestly strong westerly flow aloft will aid in the organization of updrafts and should support at least a couple of supercells. These storms will pose a risk for primarily large hail owing to the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7-7.5 C/km, with a few damaging/severe wind gusts also possible. A more outflow-dominant/cluster storm mode, and proportionally greater damaging/severe wind gust risk, should be increasingly favored with southward extent as objective analysis indicates effective shear decreases to 20-25 kts across southeastern Colorado and areas farther south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for at least a portion of the discussion area to cover these threats. ..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 36360306 36520375 37020458 38040506 39210506 40850486 41200469 41390422 41370377 41270341 41050317 40610307 39480299 38140279 37250256 36900249 36600252 36390280 36360306 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN