Mesoscale Discussion 2345
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Brief severe wind gusts and a potential tornado may occur this afternoon across portions of southwestern Kansas and far northwestern Oklahoma.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 011833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011832 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-012100- Mesoscale Discussion 2345 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011832Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible this afternoon. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A 500 mb cyclone continues to slowly drift eastward across the southern High Plains, accompanied by gradual destabilization (given widespread cloud cover). A cold front extends northeast from central KS to the TX Panhandle and is sagging southward from beneath the 500 mb cyclone. To the south and east of this front resides a marginally unstable airmass, characterized by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, as sampled by the 18Z DDC observed sounding. Given ongoing widespread clouds and precipitation, it is unclear how much additional destabilization will occur. Several storms undercut by the front have managed to produce multiple 40-50 kt gusts per regional ASOS/AWOS, roughly from Hamilton to Finney Counties in southwest KS. Assuming some surface gradient flow enhancement is underway, similar gusts may continue this afternoon. The best chance for a brief tornado will be with storms interacting with locally stronger ambient vertical vorticity not undercut by the front. At the moment, the best area would be in the warm sector along the KS/OK border. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain too localized and brief to warrant a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 10/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37280194 37750101 37860010 37899898 37729842 37419805 37219792 36729788 36349817 36149863 36149921 36229986 36410038 36710124 36960184 37280194 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH