Mesoscale Discussion 1973
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Strong to severe storm clusters may develop across eastern Colorado, northwest Kansas, and southwest Nebraska later this evening, bringing the risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 140130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140130 COR KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-140300- Mesoscale Discussion 1973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0830 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado...northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 140130Z - 140300Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms may gradually move into a more unstable air mass this evening. Some potential for MCS development and a subsequent severe wind gust risk is evident. Confidence is low, but a Watch is possible. DISCUSSION...As of 0100 UTC, regional radar imagery showed several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms ongoing from southern WY, across eastern CO into southwestern KS. Driven in part by a broad post-frontal upslope flow regime, convective coverage has steadily increased this evening. With numerous storms ongoing, some cold pool amalgamation has been noted. Recent CAM guidance shows this continuing with a potentially more organized cluster or MCS evolving later this evening. The air mass to the north of the front is still relatively warm and moist which is supporting moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg). Deep-layer shear is more modest between 25-35 kt, but slightly elongated mid and upper-level hodographs are supportive of some organization of multicells and clusters. Overall shear profiles are also expected to increase later this evening with the nocturnal low-level jet. The primary uncertainty remains the storm-scale organization of the cold pool and how that may influence the severe risk. With the environment more than supportive of strong updrafts and current storm maintenance, further clustering and eventual organization is possible, especially where low-level convergence is maximized along and north of the front. Given this potential, some severe risk could evolve later this evening and overnight. The need for a watch is very uncertain, but conditions will be monitored. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41020262 41330103 41260030 41029977 40699947 39209938 38769992 38490030 37840140 37830153 37780215 38200293 38720380 39220407 40060413 40840285 41020262 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN