Mesoscale Discussion 1781
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected to develop across eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, western Virginia, and western North Carolina through the afternoon. The severity includes potential wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to 1.25 inches, and tornado winds between 85 and 110 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 281634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281633 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-281830- Mesoscale Discussion 1781 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...southern West Virginia...western Virginia...western North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281633Z - 281830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon. Damaging wind, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms across western Virginia have shown transient supercell characteristics over the last couple of hours, with mid-level rotation apparent on radar. These will continue south and east through the early afternoon with potential for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop back to the west near the cold front into eastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia. In addition to strong deep layer shear around 45-55 kts, a 25-30 kt low-level jet axis through this region will support increasing low-level shear and increasing curvature of low-level hodographs. This will support potential for supercells and potential for a few tornadoes where supercells can be maintained. Guidance suggests storm mode may be mixed, with clusters/bowing segments and supercells. This leads to some uncertainty in how long more discrete supercells will be maintained, with potential for damaging wind and hail to be the highest confidence threat. A watch will be needed to cover this potential by the afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... ILN...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37877910 37417871 37247849 36677857 36277882 36037907 35627965 35448013 35428108 35488315 35998437 36428467 36608472 36908483 37198476 37648476 38438437 38558372 38558225 38418146 38188032 37877910 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN