Day 2 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-09-09 17:25 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-09-10 12:00 – 2026-09-11 12:00 UTC

Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks and Mid-South. These storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Product Text

000 ACUS02 KWNS 091725 SWODY2 SPC AC 091723 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A progressive, positive-tilt trough will move from the Mid MS Valley across the OH Valley, with a surface high building in behind and extending westward into the Central Plains. The associated front will stall from the Ozarks into OK, with generally weak easterly surface winds across this region. This region will harbor upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints and support modest destabilization with marginal shear. Later in the day and overnight, temporary shortwave ridging will occur over the Northern Plains as a stronger and broad upper trough develops into the northern Rockies. This will induce southerly low-level winds across the Plains with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding moisture return into NE and SD. ...Southern High Plains... Modest mid to high level northwesterlies combined with moist southeast surface winds will result in around 35 kt deep-layer shear, conditionally supporting cellular activity. Storms will develop over northeast NM after 20Z, and will proceed southeastward into the far western TX Panhandle during the evening. Cells may initially produce hail over 1.00" diameter, with possible clustering supporting locally severe gusts. ...Ozarks and Mid-South... A band of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE should develop along the front, which will also be along the southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft with the shortwave trough. Afternoon storms moving along this boundary could organize into a few small clusters, though shear will be minimal. However, strong heating just south of the boundary and steepening of low-level lapse rates may support locally damaging outflow/gusts. ..Jewell.. 09/09/2026 $$