Mesoscale Discussion 1804
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Thunderstorms developing along the Colorado Front Range and southward through the Raton Mesa may produce strong to severe winds later this evening. The threat of 55 to 70 mph wind gusts is most likely to affect southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 301934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301933 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-302130- Mesoscale Discussion 1804 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Areas affected...The Colorado Front Range into northeast New Mexico and the far western Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301933Z - 302130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the Colorado Front Range and southward to the Raton Mesa will continue over the next few hours. With time, a threat for strong to severe winds will spread east into the High Plains. This threat should remain sufficiently localized to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...GOES imagery shows building cumulus across the Raton Mesa/north-central NM, along a weak surface trough in central CO, and within the higher terrain of north-central CO. This activity is primarily being driven diurnal orographic ascent and weak low-level convergence, but these forcing mechanisms should increase through the coming hours as the diurnal heating maximum approaches. Additionally, mixed-layer inhibition continues to erode as temperatures across the High Plains warm into the low 90s, which should allow for thunderstorm maintenance as convection slowly spreads east towards lower elevation given 20-25 knot westerly mid-level flow aloft. Despite an increasingly uncapped downstream environment, the modestly moist air mass across the High Plains is supporting only around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, which should limit overall thunderstorm intensity. However, steep lapse rates through the lowest 2-3 km will promote strong downdraft accelerations and the potential for consolidating cold pools. Consequently, some threat for strong to severe winds (most likely 55-70 mph) will likely emerge across the region. This threat is not expected to be particularly widespread given weak/localized forcing for ascent and a modest thermodynamic/kinematic environment, but one or two more prominent clusters may emerge and result in a more focused corridor of severe wind potential. Based on latest guidance, this appears most probable across southeast CO into adjacent portions NM and the OK/TX Panhandles later this evening as convection moves off the Raton Mesa. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 35900415 36330451 36740475 37150474 39420469 40740461 40960442 41110405 41090351 40910318 40410293 39890286 39000293 38230262 37880240 37310189 36810174 36370179 36090202 35930249 35850292 35900415 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH