Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-08-15 06:01 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and rare tornadoes are expected across much of the central and southern United States on Saturday. The risk of severe weather varies from marginal to slight across wide areas of the South, Midwest, and Southwest throughout the day.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 150601 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026 VALID TIME 151200Z - 161200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 38228319 38298380 38588451 38908481 39508534 39768548 39988557 40508559 40798550 41028533 41218503 41308468 41308424 41228383 40918320 40398270 39658204 39258190 38938196 38628217 38368255 38228319 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 36530222 36490274 36470330 36570382 36840415 37750472 38670504 41780544 42680564 43150535 43540462 43550403 43480351 43030297 42480244 40730201 38210173 37290175 36840182 36730192 36530222 0.15 37120275 37100323 37260359 37650399 38200433 39200457 41170475 41790475 42190451 42400398 42430369 42350333 42080313 41590287 40770261 39020238 38050229 37420232 37340236 37120275 && ... WIND ... 0.05 31598010 31758147 31308249 30358404 30258493 30478551 31148570 31868537 32738476 33968422 35558418 36598439 38118549 38968699 39138963 38949160 38649536 36669995 36150171 36000332 36240416 36720477 37280489 39110541 41940585 43040643 43570662 44100643 44390582 44550508 44490380 44150273 43150127 42340023 41969885 41749685 41619324 41889005 42198859 42618620 42538500 42268396 41218208 40248114 38537956 36777837 35447743 34317570 0.15 41138628 41528638 41928588 41918534 41748455 40938321 38728125 35887917 35297884 34697896 34377923 34098001 34088073 34228172 34598246 35038273 35648289 36448321 38078403 39448530 40808617 41138628 0.15 36760348 37040397 37510429 38200459 39250481 40360493 41220497 41850496 42370469 42690388 42710271 42410200 41920171 40690147 38540123 37370128 36950162 36750269 36760348 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... SLGT 41928588 41918534 41748455 40938321 38728125 35887917 35297884 34697896 34377923 34098001 34088073 34228172 34598246 35038273 36448321 38078403 39448530 40808617 41528638 41928588 SLGT 41850496 42370469 42690388 42710271 42410200 41920171 40690147 38540123 37370128 36950162 36750269 36760348 37040397 37510429 38200459 39250481 41220497 41850496 MRGL 31628036 31758147 31308249 30358404 30258493 30478551 31148570 31868537 32738476 33968422 35558418 36598439 38118549 38968699 39138963 38649536 36669995 36150171 36000332 36240416 36720477 39110541 41940585 43040643 43570662 44100643 44390582 44550508 44490380 44150273 42340023 41969885 41749685 41619324 41889005 42618620 42538500 42268396 41218208 38537956 35447743 34387581 TSTM 32251651 32741685 33601723 34661767 35351781 36901777 39951694 41221702 42691852 43511928 43762035 43202139 43402214 44352235 46712249 48342234 49532243 49822248 99999999 30971234 31931223 33211022 34310944 35090897 36200730 37560768 38710882 39501081 40381172 40421256 39961290 38631234 37421185 36561110 35781062 35241046 34361061 33811112 33821224 33701403 33221477 32491486 31881463 99999999 46858342 46158406 45748542 45718674 45658776 45508861 45268952 44679038 43879006 43848878 43498663 42758356 42208105 41607933 40697811 39207747 37597756 36307592 35567419 99999999 49551688 49551688 48701745 48241740 47781699 48011425 48001287 47851034 46830778 45370550 44680269 43970119 44679800 45459695 47049660 48839741 49989896 99999999 28479065 29829057 30479027 32368757 34388606 36338568 37538650 38198841 38119138 38149527 34820174 33160313 31960292 30270247 29260095 27980070 && THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AZO 25 SSE AZO 35 S JXN 25 ESE FDY 30 NE CRW 20 W RDU 20 N FAY 20 SSW FAY 30 ENE FLO 20 WSW FLO 25 ENE CAE 40 WNW CAE 15 ENE AND 30 SSW AVL 45 NNW HSS 30 E LEX 55 S MIE 50 ENE LAF 15 SSW SBN 25 SW AZO THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CYS 35 NW TOR 45 NNE TOR 20 ESE CDR 50 ENE AIA 35 WSW MHN 15 NE IML 50 NNW GCK 30 NW LBL 15 ESE EHA 35 S SPD 30 NW CAO 25 SE TAD 15 N TAD 0 - PUB 30 N COS 10 WNW CYS 50 N CYS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE SAV 30 SSW SAV 0 - AYS 20 E TLH 35 N AAF 20 NNE PFN 20 SW DHN 40 N DHN 20 NE CSG 25 NNE ATL 20 SSW TYS 40 SSW LOZ 15 ESE SDF 25 WSW BMG 30 NE ALN 35 SSE TOP 25 NNW GAG 35 NNW BGD 30 SSW CAO 40 SSE RTN 15 W RTN 40 WNW COS 45 NNW LAR 10 NNE CPR 45 N CPR 55 SSE SHR 15 W GCC 25 ENE GCC 50 NW RAP 15 ENE RAP 20 SW ANW 20 NE BUB 35 NE OLU 20 NNW OXV 40 NE MLI 35 NNE BEH 25 SW LAN 10 WNW ARB 20 SW CLE 30 SSE EKN 35 NW EWN 60 S HSE GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CZZ 20 E SAN 25 SSE RAL 20 SE EDW 25 SSW NID 45 SE BIH 35 NNE U31 45 N BAM 35 WNW REO 20 WSW BNO 50 SE RDM 75 S RDM 80 NNE MFR 50 SE SLE 25 SE OLM 35 SSE BLI 50 N BLI 70 N BLI ...CONT... 115 SW TUS 75 SSE GBN 40 NW SAD 30 E SOW 30 SSW GUP 25 WNW 4SL 30 N DRO 30 SSW GJT 10 SSW PUC 30 SSE SLC 25 NE DPG 15 S DPG 40 ENE MLF 25 SE BCE 30 SE PGA 55 N INW 20 NE INW 35 W SOW 60 ENE PHX 30 NNW PHX 40 E BLH 25 S BLH 20 SW YUM 55 S YUM ...CONT... 50 ENE ANJ 25 SE ANJ 30 WNW PLN 15 E ESC 20 SE IMT 30 SW IMT 25 NNE AUW 35 WSW CWA 10 ESE VOK 15 SW OSH 30 NW MKG 20 SSE FNT 45 W ERI 40 S JHW 20 SW UNV 30 ESE MRB 15 WNW RIC 15 E ECG 85 ENE HSE ...CONT... 135 NNE GEG 135 NNE GEG 75 N GEG 45 N GEG 25 ENE GEG 20 S GPI 50 SSW CTB 55 SSW HVR 80 NNE BIL 0 - 4BQ 45 NNE RAP 20 ESE PHP 25 NNE HON 25 WNW VVV 15 NE FAR 20 WNW HCO 130 N DVL ...CONT... 75 S HUM 20 NNE HUM 30 WNW ASD 35 W SEM 30 N GAD 45 NW CSV 40 N BWG 25 ESE MVN 20 E VIH 35 NNE CNU 30 S AMA 35 N HOB 20 NE INK 20 NW 6R6 10 SSW DRT 80 WNW LRD