Mesoscale Discussion 2061
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe hail and wind may occur in portions of central Nebraska into far northwestern Kansas this evening. Some storms could produce large hail over 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 80 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 210029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210028 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-210200- Mesoscale Discussion 2061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of central Nebraska into far northwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 210028Z - 210200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and wind may accompany the stronger storms this evening. An instance of 2+ inch diameter hail is possible with any longer-lasting, discrete supercells. DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster with transient supercell characteristics and a history of producing severe gusts continues to propagate southward along/ahead of a surface trough, where MLCINH is minimal. Latest MRMS MESH depicts a potential increase in hail size with an embedded supercell structure. Furthermore, additional storms also initiating ahead of the surface trough, along a confluence zone in southwestn NE into far northwest KS. In this region, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE is in place, along with at least 40 kts of effective bulk shear per 00Z mesoanalysis. The latest GLD shows an elongated hodograph, indicative of splitting supercell structures with a continued severe hail/gust threat. When also considering 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates in place (per regional 00Z observed soundings), an instance of 2+ inch diameter hail cannot be ruled out with mature supercells at their peak intensity. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39620205 40460141 41500077 41780052 41840007 41649975 41129957 40419958 39799990 39470044 39280113 39260165 39620205 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN