Mesoscale Discussion 1107
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are expected to develop across much of Virginia, parts of West Virginia, Maryland, and northern North Carolina through the afternoon. These storms may produce wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 121837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121836 COR VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-121900- Mesoscale Discussion 1107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Areas affected...much of Virginia...parts of West Virginia...Maryland...northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 121836Z - 121900Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected to develop through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A surface trough is gradually deepening across MD/VA/NC with strong heating resulting in very steep low-level lapse rates. Modest northwest flow aloft exists into the area, which may aid in steering storms in a southeastward direction. Visible imagery shows a moist air mass across the entire area and extending west across the higher terrain as well, suggesting minimal drying/downslope effects. In the next couple hours, storms may form in the agitated CU area currently seen over northern into northwest VA. Several models depict a possible cluster of storms moving southeastward later today, with a corridor of damaging winds possible. Other storms are likely to develop over WV and southward across the Appalachians. Given the weak northwest winds aloft, any such activity may move into the lower terrain late in the day. Several models suggest any such convection and/or outflows may instigate new development during the late afternoon into much of central VA and perhaps northern NC. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 37258177 37808116 38787980 38987924 39137802 39027702 38927678 38377634 37847641 37517710 36987785 36397880 36018174 36018182 36368227 36798229 37258177 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN