Mesoscale Discussion 2271
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur with widely scattered thunderstorms through this evening across portions of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and far southeastern Nebraska. Severe wind gusts could reach 60 to 70 mph in some areas.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 082208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082208 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-090015- Mesoscale Discussion 2271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western/northern Kansas and far southeastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082208Z - 090015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with widely scattered thunderstorms through this evening, with the greatest potential likely extending from eastern Colorado into portions of far western Kansas. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery depict a well-defined cold front extending southwestward from central Iowa into northeastern New Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have formed along this boundary across portions of northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska as of 2205 UTC. Generally 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE exists along and south of the surface cold front, where temperatures are noted to be in the low 100s F. While effective shear remains rather weak within the warm sector (generally 20-25 kts or less), dewpoint depressions approaching or exceeding 40 F, steep low-level lapse rates, and MLLCLs of 2.5-3 km may support isolated damaging wind gusts with stronger downdrafts. Farther west, thunderstorms have formed along the Front Range of Colorado and northeastern New Mexico. Latest high-res guidance suggests that a somewhat better organized cluster of thunderstorms may evolve off of the Colorado Front Range later this afternoon/evening in the wake of the cold front. While available buoyancy will be weak, similarly steep low-level lapse rates, modestly greater effective shear, and marginally stronger mid-level flow (as indicated by recent objective analysis and the PUX VAD profile) may promote a locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts. Explicit wind gust forecasts by recent HRRR/RRFS runs support this and suggest some potential for isolated gusts up to 60-70 mph should a stronger cluster evolve. Trends will continue to be monitored, but the overall severe risk is expected to remain isolated and limited in magnitude. Thus, watch issuance is not expected. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 09/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 38599889 38090009 37540124 37130183 36860249 36880293 37110400 37850454 38170466 38560472 38960462 39270408 39320349 39340262 39390166 39470082 39570002 39799918 40029850 40259773 40439726 40569686 40559654 40499634 40309625 39959640 39489684 39129749 38909813 38599889 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH