Mesoscale Discussion 1812
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are expected across central and eastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. The threat is marginal, with potential wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail between 1 and 1.75 inches.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 312031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312030 COZ000-NMZ000-312230- Mesoscale Discussion 1812 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Areas affected...central/eastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312030Z - 312230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for damaging wind and hail this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across the high terrain in central and eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico. Instability is modest, but steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep layer shear should support some potential for a few organized storms. Deeply mixed profiles, inverted-v profiles, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support outflow dominate storms with potential for damaging wind. A few instances of severe hail will also be possible. Generally, this threat is expected to be isolated and a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 07/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36380397 36330503 36550520 37900534 39590520 39790471 39760428 39620408 39290391 39060378 38680359 38440352 37400329 36820355 36380397 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN