Day 3 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-10-03 19:21 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-10-05 12:00 – 2026-10-06 12:00 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the United States on Monday, though scattered thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the northern Great Basin late Monday into early Tuesday.

Product Text

000 ACUS03 KWNS 031921 SWODY3 SPC AC 031920 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will continue to intensify as it moves quickly eastward over the Northeast States and eventually offshore on Monday. In the wake of the wave, northwesterly flow aloft will intensify as expansive ridging develops across the central US. A surface cold front near the Gulf Coast will continue to meander southward, with high pressure and subsequent northeasterly low-level winds behind it. Robust moisture will remain confined to the Gulf Coast states, but with only weak instability and vertical shear overlap. Thus, scatted thunderstorms are likely, but with little to no severe potential. Elsewhere, cool mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km) beneath an upper-level shortwave trough may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin late Monday into early Tuesday. However, limited moisture and buoyancy suggest overall coverage/intensity will remain limited. ..Lyons.. 10/03/2026 $$