Mesoscale Discussion 1836
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Developing thunderstorms across parts of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa could produce limited hail and gusty winds between 12:00 AM and 3:00 AM CDT. The expected severity of these storms is generally low.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 050502 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050501 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-050700- Mesoscale Discussion 1836 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Nebraska through southwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050501Z - 050700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the region could pose limited potential for hail and gusty winds into the 1-3 AM CDT time frame, but the severe weather threat generally appears limited. DISCUSSION...Aided by ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the nose of a modest nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet (20-30 around 850 mb), thunderstorms have recently initiated to the cool side of a fairly sharp, stalled low-level baroclinic zone across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. Lapse rates above the stable near-surface layer appear to be supporting CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, in the presence of strong westerly shear near the base of large-scale mid/upper troughing overspreading the north central U.S. This environment is supportive of organized convection, including supercell structures, but relatively warm thermodynamic profiles in the convective layer may tend to limit the risk for severe hail. Barring the development of a notable surface pressure perturbation associated with gravity waves, which currently seems a low probability, the potential for damaging surface gusts also appears limited. ..Kerr/Smith.. 08/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 41179601 41459537 41549479 41519346 40869323 40769388 40529595 40899625 41179601 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH