Mesoscale Discussion 1835
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Strong to severe wind gusts are possible near the eastern Arizona international border through approximately 11 PM MST. These gusts are expected to reach speeds of 55 to 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 050425 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050425 AZZ000-050630- Mesoscale Discussion 1835 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026 Areas affected...the eastern Arizona international border vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538... Valid 050425Z - 050630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe wind gusts might still be possible through about 10-11 PM MST near the eastern Arizona international border vicinity. DISCUSSION...A concentrated area of stronger convection to the southeast of Douglas AZ, appears in the process of collapsing, perhaps accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts near the international border area over the next hour or so. However, renewed intensifying convection is tending to occur to the southwest of this core, farther to the south of the international border, aided by more unstable updraft inflow and better shear. As this trend continues into the overnight hours. the risk for severe weather appears to be diminishing sufficiently to allow the severe weather watch to expire. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC... LAT...LON 30731098 31101110 31381100 31500933 31000875 30530921 30351047 30731098 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH