Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-07-16 16:36 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms, including risks of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, are expected across parts of the central and southern United States today. These storms pose a slight to marginal risk for various regions through the afternoon and evening.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 161636 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026 VALID TIME 161630Z - 171200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 29350189 30390183 30800122 30610008 30029974 29389959 28979998 28660093 0.02 49509824 48809785 48449823 48379891 48390006 48960097 49560140 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 48729164 47819305 47419490 47699902 48230031 49550163 0.05 49521223 47970981 44700832 44411016 44721248 44801417 45181811 45661861 46971831 48161846 49481745 0.15 45381090 45401245 46321422 47351441 47791334 47431152 45911030 45561036 45381090 && ... WIND ... 0.05 46497057 45806859 44966725 44346660 99999999 42606962 42887079 43657367 44367476 45337537 0.05 50091310 47990983 44690832 44411014 44721261 44201378 43711434 43091383 42581296 42191277 41771362 41781550 42091643 42961735 44891852 45391869 46961831 48151847 49481745 0.05 48729164 47819304 47419490 47699902 48310014 49450091 0.05 38567422 39077700 39648055 39878147 40128156 40308134 40457988 40627672 40577502 40277290 0.15 42986959 43527088 44267212 45227320 99999999 46087082 45596913 44946793 44166701 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... SLGT 46087082 45596913 44946793 44166701 99999999 43006964 43527088 44267212 45227320 SLGT 47791334 47431152 45911030 45561036 45381090 45401245 46321422 47351441 47791334 MRGL 29350189 30390183 30800122 30610008 30029974 29389959 28979998 28660093 MRGL 38587432 39648055 39878147 40128156 40308134 40627672 40577502 40277290 MRGL 46497057 45806859 44966725 44416667 99999999 42606962 43657367 44367476 45317536 MRGL 49521221 47970981 44690832 44411016 44721261 44201378 43711434 43091383 42581296 42191277 41771362 41781550 42091643 42961735 44891852 45391869 46971831 48151847 49481745 MRGL 48729164 47819304 47419490 47699902 48230031 49500158 TSTM 42236877 43097285 43377383 43657476 43827524 44147591 44627663 99999999 32101728 33931748 35081715 35521677 36051646 36621641 37371649 39001696 42111805 44421922 44981963 45172049 45152098 44912254 44802424 45452477 46142574 99999999 45749592 46149756 46089899 45690017 44940150 43880270 43560294 43320336 43100454 43100539 42780617 42420670 42110698 41940694 41780655 41360544 40400461 39150413 38110393 37070356 36070346 35190394 34630433 34300428 34220397 34390339 35750109 36499935 36819884 37279840 38009853 39139854 39999831 40849784 41429688 41769583 42169531 43039499 44179493 45229530 45749592 99999999 34909224 34209278 33269221 32389061 31948908 31468803 31238716 31968644 32688654 33418723 34588990 34909224 99999999 37367453 37577772 38158033 38228124 38188203 38088255 37788279 37118261 35948199 35088119 32987823 99999999 48778898 47828723 45638637 44018667 42498627 41418505 40908311 40967956 41197435 41127288 40527136 99999999 49431111 49031100 48791058 48631000 48190895 47310641 47040545 47060433 47490315 48290254 49640203 && THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 N BML 55 NNW BGR 40 NNE BHB 50 S EPM ...CONT... 55 SE PWM 30 N PSM 20 E MPV 50 N BTV THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE GPI 10 WSW GTF 15 NNE LVM 10 SSE LVM 30 SSE BZN 10 NNE DLN 40 S MSO 35 NNW MSO 55 SE GPI THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 6R6 35 NE 6R6 60 SW SJT 20 WNW JCT 35 S JCT 25 W HDO 55 WSW HDO 50 S DRT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE ACY 40 S HLG 25 ESE ZZV 20 ENE ZZV 45 S CAK 30 NNE CXY 25 NNW TTN 35 SSE ISP THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 130 NNE BML 45 WSW HUL 10 WNW EPM 40 SSE EPM ...CONT... 75 NNE HYA 20 N GFL 30 W SLK 35 NW MSS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N CTB 40 S HVR 35 ENE COD 65 NNE JAC 20 NW MQM 55 NNE SUN 15 N SUN 35 N BYI 30 SW PIH 25 W MLD 55 S BYI 35 ESE OWY 15 NW OWY 35 NE REO 35 W BKE 20 SSE PDT 60 N ALW 55 NW GEG 130 N GEG THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ELO 30 NNW HIB 10 S BJI 30 S DVL 45 E MOT 85 N MOT GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ENE HYA 30 S RUT 10 WNW GFL 45 NE UCA 45 N UCA 10 NNE ART 50 NW ART ...CONT... 45 S SAN 0 - RAL 25 NW DAG 45 N DAG 50 SSW DRA 25 W DRA 55 NNW DRA 35 SSE U31 35 SSW REO 60 NNW BNO 65 SW PDT 45 SE DLS 35 SSE DLS 25 E SLE 20 NNW ONP 70 NNW ONP 90 W AST ...CONT... 25 WSW AXN 65 SSW FAR 50 NNW ABR 15 NE MBG 60 N PHP 20 SE RAP 35 S RAP 35 NNW CDR 50 ENE DGW 25 N DGW 15 ESE CPR 35 SSW CPR 25 NNE RWL 15 NE RWL 35 E RWL 10 ENE LAR 20 E FCL 25 WSW LIC 25 WNW LHX 50 NNW CAO 30 SSW CAO 20 W TCC 55 SW TCC 55 W CVS 40 WSW CVS 0 - CVS 20 ENE BGD 25 ENE GAG 10 WNW AVK 10 E P28 35 W HUT 25 NE RSL 45 S HSI 25 ESE GRI 25 E OLU 20 E TQE 15 NNE DNS 15 SE SPW 25 SSE RWF 45 S AXN 25 WSW AXN ...CONT... 10 N LIT 25 SE HOT 35 SW LLQ 30 W JAN 35 SW MEI 55 NNE MOB 15 SSW GZH 25 S MGM 30 NNW MGM 25 ENE TCL 25 WNW UOX 10 N LIT ...CONT... 65 SE WAL 25 WNW RIC 25 N SSU 20 ESE CRW 25 WSW CRW 20 S HTS 40 SSW HTS 45 NNW TRI 35 WNW HKY 15 SW CLT 65 SE CRE ...CONT... 115 NNW CMX 90 N MQT 35 E ESC 25 SW MBL 25 NNE BEH 30 NNE FWA 30 ESE FDY 35 SSE FKL 35 NNW EWR 15 ESE BDR 45 SSE BID ...CONT... 80 NE CTB 65 WNW HVR 40 WNW HVR 10 WNW HVR 45 ESE HVR 65 S GGW 30 WSW GDV 25 ESE GDV 50 NNW DIK 50 E ISN 100 NNW MOT