Mesoscale Discussion 1500
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible through sunset across west central and southwest Minnesota and northeast South Dakota. The expected severity of these storms remains marginal.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 042207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042207 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042330- Mesoscale Discussion 1500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...West central/southwest Minnesota and northeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042207Z - 042330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts possible through sunset, but the overall threat is expected to remain too marginal for a watch. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms are ongoing along a couple of outflow boundaries in MN, and along-southwest of a diffuse surface trough into northeast SD. Water vapor imagery shows a weak midlevel trough beginning to turn southeastward over northeast SD, which should support additional storm development through the evening into west central/southwest MN and northeast SD along the weak surface boundaries. Vertical shear is on the lower margins for organized/supercell storms in a moderately unstable environment, with sufficiently steep low-midlevel lapse rates for isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts. Since storm intensity and organization are unlikely to increase from what is observed now, a watch is likely not necessary. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46349597 45989564 45749492 45979371 45779338 45539348 44899510 44489553 43969572 43919594 44829671 44939841 44949900 45259927 45779916 46089852 46089845 46019772 45749737 45609691 45739645 46249628 46349597 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN