Mesoscale Discussion 1151
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated strong wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph are expected to move through eastern South Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and western Minnesota this afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 152021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152020 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-152215- Mesoscale Discussion 1151 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Areas affected...portions of the northern Great Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152020Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for strong to severe wind gusts will spread eastward this afternoon, with the greatest risk likely from northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota. DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has increased across portions of the northern Great Plains through the early afternoon, with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms noted via regional radar imagery. While buoyancy remains generally weak at around a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE (per a modified 18z ABR sounding), high LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates (2500+ m and 9+ C/km, respectively) are supporting efficient downward momentum transport of strengthening mid-level flow (30-40 kts sampled at 3 km AGL by the BIS/ABR VADs), with several wind gusts of 60-69 mph measured over the past 1-2 hours. This activity and the associated threat for isolated strong/severe wind gusts will spread eastward into eastern South Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and western Minnesota over the next 1-3 hours. The greatest potential likely exists downstream of a marginally stronger cluster of convection approaching Aberdeen, South Dakota. Watch issuance remains unlikely owing to the isolated nature of the severe threat. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 43619594 43639674 43699768 43799835 43969896 44199960 44360007 44540028 44720032 44880018 44989999 45239968 45459951 45739941 46149929 46759913 47019888 47229862 47359798 47129596 46859529 46089462 45059460 44209486 43679554 43619594 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH