Mesoscale Discussion 1994
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible overnight across parts of northern Kansas, southern Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Expected peak wind gusts may reach 55 to 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 160713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160713 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160915- Mesoscale Discussion 1994 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Areas affected...Parts of northern KS and southern NE into northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160713Z - 160915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts are possible overnight. DISCUSSION...An MCS is moving across north-central KS towards south-central NE early this morning. Relatively strong inbound velocities (45-55 kt) are noted at 1-2 km AGL from KUEX along the gust front, though recent measured gusts have generally been sub-severe. Low-level warm advection and a plume of large PW (near/above 2 inches) to the north of a front draped across southern KS may help to sustain this system through at least part of the overnight, though rather weak mid/upper-level flow, modest effective shear, and unfavorable low-level lapse rates may tend to keep any severe-gust threat localized. Additional storms may continue to develop in advance of the MCS across northeast KS into northwest MO, within the warm-advection regime north of the front. The large PW will support localized downburst potential within this regime as well, though the elevated nature of the convection and generally modest effective shear are expected to limit the coverage and magnitude of the threat. ..Dean/Mosier.. 08/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39889941 40409903 40669840 40629512 40189300 39629254 39279292 39199378 39109646 38999687 38869741 38679794 38669832 39079838 39419856 39889941 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH