Day 1 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are expected today across the Mid-Atlantic and southwest New England, as well as parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest tonight. Isolated severe storms with damaging winds are also possible this afternoon in western North Carolina, north Texas, and parts of Nebraska and Kansas.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 081607 SWODY1 SPC AC 081605 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of damaging gusts will be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic states into southwest New England. ...Northeast States... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over OH tracking eastward. A warm/moist air mass is present ahead of the trough, with pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg expected later today. Large scale forcing associated with the trough is rather weak, and overall coverage of storms may be rather isolated. However, stronger winds aloft than yesterday suggest a conditional risk of wind damage with any sustained storm later today. Have extended the SLGT risk area a little farther north into NY/MA where morning model guidance suggests higher coverage/confidence in storms. Have also extended the MRGL farther west into OH beneath the upper trough where widely scattered storms may also produce gusty/damaging winds. ...Western NC... A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form off the mountains of western NC and vicinity, and track slowly southeastward. Strong daytime heating, humid conditions, and sufficient CAPE may promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cores. ...North TX... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along an E-W axis across north TX this afternoon in a hot/humid air mass. The strongest of these slow-moving cells may produce damaging winds. ...NE/KS... A cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing over central NE. This activity may persist into the afternoon, tracking southeastward toward northeast KS/northwest MO. Given the corridor of high CAPE in this zone, a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail are possible. ...ND/SD/MN/IA... A strengthening southerly low-level jet will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms tonight after midnight over central ND. These storms are expected to develop southeastward into parts of SD/MN/IA before 12z. Relatively strong vertical shear will support supercells capable of hail and damaging winds. ...AZ... Full sunshine and sufficient CAPE will once again promote thunderstorm develop off the Mogollon Rim this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show increasing mid-level moisture through the evening as an upper trough passes to the south, perhaps aiding convective maintenance westward into the lower elevations. If so, given the favorable steering flow, strong/severe outflow winds could spread into the PHX area around 00z. This scenario will be monitored for a possible upgrade to SLGT in later outlooks. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/08/2026 $$