Mesoscale Discussion 2128
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to increase across southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado, and western Nebraska through the evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 252053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252053 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252300- Mesoscale Discussion 2128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...northeastern Colorado...western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252053Z - 252300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing threat for severe storms by late afternoon. A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Easterly upslope flow across western NE/KS into eastern Colorado to the foothills is contributing to steadily increasing moisture into eastern Colorado/southeastern Wyoming. Recent ACARS soundings from DEN show MLCIN remains. MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg is noted within SPC Mesoanalysis from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska/northern Kansas. Convection has increased along the high terrain. Guidance suggests that with further heating and forcing for ascent with an upstream disturbance shifting eastward late this afternoon/early evening, thunderstorms will increase in coverage spread into the lower plains in eastern Colorado and eventually into portions of the central Plains. With modest westerly flow aloft and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts, supercell modes will be favored initially. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threat, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates and aforementioned thermodynamic environment. A transition to clusters and upscale growth though the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary threat through the evening. A watch will be possible this evening to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Smith.. 08/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40880465 41510439 42020391 42230340 42220289 42060228 41710169 41170115 40340124 39910145 39720219 39820303 40030369 40410456 40880465 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN