Mesoscale Discussion 1860
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible across parts of southeast Arizona through late Friday evening. These gusts could reach speeds of 55 to 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 080335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080335 AZZ000-080530- Mesoscale Discussion 1860 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southeast AZ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080335Z - 080530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts are possible into late evening. DISCUSSION...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity has been noted within the last hour to the northeast of Tucson, with cooling cloud tops noted on IR imagery. This uptick has occurred as southwesterly moving outflow interacts with local terrain features and moderate buoyancy. With increasing CINH downstream of this convection, the magnitude and longevity of any severe threat remains uncertain. However, weak northeasterly steering flow will allow outflow to continue spreading southwestward. In the presence of a remnant well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, potential for strong to locally severe gusts may continue into the late evening, even if deep convection begins to weaken with time. ..Dean/Mosier.. 08/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 31821020 31701096 31961163 32721206 33001179 33011101 32711007 32400987 32110987 31890993 31821020 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH