Day 1 Convective Outlook

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Issued: 2026-09-09 20:04 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-09-09 20:00 – 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York, with some storms potentially producing damaging wind gusts.

Product Text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 092004 SWODY1 SPC AC 092002 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorms forecast based on observations and recent guidance. Severe probabilities remain unchanged, however. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026/ ...OH/PA/NY... A fast-moving shortwave trough now over WI/IL will track eastward today across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the primary baroclinic currently extends from Lake Erie into OH/IN and will move eastward and be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Strong heating and dewpoints in the 70s across much of OH and western PA will result in moderate CAPE values and steep low-level lapse rates. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote organized storms with some bowing structures expected, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread into western NY/northwest PA by early evening before weakening. ...IN/IL/MO... The storms that form over OH will zipper southwestward along the boundary into a pocket of ample CAPE/moisture over parts of southern IN/IL into southern MO. Winds aloft in this area will be weaker, with less overall organization of storms. Nevertheless, a few storms may occasionally produce damaging wind gusts. ...TX/OK/KS... Widely scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds in a hot/humid surface air mass. $$