Mesoscale Discussion 1486
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated hail and strong wind gusts are possible across parts of northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas, and southwest Nebraska during the early morning hours. These storms could produce hail up to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 040551 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040550 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-040645- Mesoscale Discussion 1486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO into northwest KS and far southwest NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 040550Z - 040645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts will be possible into the early morning. DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage and intensity late tonight across parts of northeast CO, likely aided by warm advection in the 800-700 mb layer, to the north of a front draped from east-central CO into northwest KS. Moist low-level easterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is resulting in MUCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg, with effective bulk shear likely around 30-40 kt for convection rooted around 800 mb. This environment is supportive of at least transient storm organization, though rather weak upper-level flow will likely result in a complex storm mode. This could temper the longevity of the hail threat with any particular storm, though the environment otherwise supports hail approaching 2 inches in diameter. Localized severe gusts will also be possible in association with the strongest downdrafts and any larger-scale outflows. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39200440 40230355 40410199 40290038 39430011 38940018 38690038 38590081 38960223 39000298 38990351 38960415 39200440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN