Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes are expected across central and eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. Scattered storms with the potential for damaging wind gusts may also develop this afternoon across the coastal Carolinas, southeast Georgia, the southern High Plains, and the Great Basin into the northern Rockies.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 240531 SWODY1 SPC AC 240529 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado are forecast during the afternoon and evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Dakotas into northern MN... Within an amplifying upper-level pattern, multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs are forecast to move east-southeastward from the northern Rockies toward ND and northern MN through the period. A surface trough will trail southwestward from a deep surface cyclone that will move from northern MB/ON towards Hudson Bay. A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread a warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of ND into northwest MN by late afternoon. Strengthening mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow will result in favorable deep-layer shear, resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms. Guidance generally suggests that widely scattered storms will develop along the surface trough by late afternoon across eastern ND. Elongated hodographs and favorable instability will initially favor supercell development, though some clustering will be possible with time into the evening. Large to very large hail will be the primary initial hazard. Some tornado potential could evolve with persistent supercells, as low-level shear gradually increases from late afternoon into the evening. Any organized clustering could result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential. Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger portion of northern/central MN through late evening, with a general weakening trend expected late in the period due to increasing CINH and weakening buoyancy. Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of northern/central ND within a northwesterly flow regime. This scenario is more uncertain, but 5% wind/hail probabilities have been expanded westward in response to this potential. ...Coastal Carolinas vicinity... Relatively strong heating of a richly moist airmass (PW above 2 inches) will result in the development of moderate buoyancy across parts of the Coastal Carolinas and southeast GA, in the vicinity of a surface front. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, but locally damaging downbursts and outflow winds will be possible within the warm and very moist environment. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... A nearly stationary front draped from eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon or early evening. Buoyancy is forecast to remain modest, and deep-layer flow will be weak, so organized storm potential currently appears low. However, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will support potential for localized downbursts. While magnitude and coverage of the threat currently appear rather limited, wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in more than very localized severe-wind potential. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies... Widely scattered high-based storm development is expected this afternoon from parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, along the periphery of an amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners region. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear are both expected to remain weak, but strong to locally severe gusts will be possible within the hot and well-mixed regime. Wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in more than a very localized/transient severe-gust threat. ..Dean/Jirak.. 07/24/2026 $$