Mesoscale Discussion 1811
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and southwest Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. These storms may bring wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph and hail up to 1.25 inches.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 312004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312003 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-312200- Mesoscale Discussion 1811 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico the Texas Panhandle and southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312003Z - 312200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A very hot air mass will support scattered thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe gusts are possible. A WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible imagery and surface observations showed increasing cumulus and thunderstorms along a surface wind shift/cold front and over northeastern NM. Strong heating is contributing to moderate destabilization (SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) from southwest OK, into the TX Panhandle and eastern NM on the southwestern periphery of an upper trough progressing through the Midwest. As weak ascent overspreads the warming air mass thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity this afternoon, moving off the higher terrain in NM and ahead of the cold front farther east. The surface air mass is very hot (100-105 F) and deeply mixed which is supporting very steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km. Deep inverted-v structures will encourage effect downdrafts with strong to severe gusts possible with the most robust storms. Moderate effective shear of 20-25 kt will support a multicell storm mode with some clustering given the expected strength of the outflow. The severe risk appears likely to focus east of the higher terrain in NM with scattered severe storms. With time, some clustering would spread east/southeastward into the western TX Panhandle with a continued risk for strong to severe gusts as depicted by 12z CAMS. More isolated storms may also develop and intensify along the wind shift and weak cold front across the TX Panhandle and southwest OK. Given the expected increase in storm coverage, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible this afternoon. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 07/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33050110 33070239 33350430 34200503 35390506 35880497 36250453 36190382 35630259 35610249 35320063 35319933 35319881 35339848 35259800 35139759 34779751 34399756 33889790 33549839 33459858 33140046 33050110 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN