Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and strong winds are expected across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas late this afternoon into the early evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 261156 SWODY1 SPC AC 261155 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the early evening. ...Western OK into northwest TX... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the central and southern High Plains moving northeast while a smaller-scale upper jet moves across the TX Panhandle into OK. A lee trough will extend southward through the High Plains and act to maintain southerly low-level flow and a fetch of modest moisture (surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F). Scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning will likely dissipate with additional storm activity expected to develop around 21-23 UTC. Sufficiently steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon and the erosion of MLCINH will likely result in widely scattered to scattered storms developing from south-central KS through western OK and parts of west/northwest TX. Adequately strong deep-layer shear for storm organization will aid in a few of the stronger thunderstorms to be capable of an isolated threat for large hail and severe gusts (mainly 22z-02z). Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for severe weather are expected to prevail. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/26/2026 $$