Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-07-27 05:53 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms with risks of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected across parts of the central and eastern United States on Monday. An enhanced risk of severe weather is forecast for areas from central Illinois through southern Michigan, while slight and marginal risks extend across much of the Midwest and Northeast.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 270553 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026 VALID TIME 271200Z - 281200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 41708382 40948354 40238369 39548409 38918468 38488536 38308646 38448789 38708915 39249031 40239118 40999123 43479157 44799140 45489104 45939024 45898890 45748798 45448745 44378573 43188499 42168427 41708382 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 42308188 40538216 39048330 38768535 39158741 41089025 45479144 47469188 49049231 0.05 44950306 44140120 43390028 42669997 41579955 40919951 40399961 39949994 39440031 38970075 38760143 38730190 38700226 39050329 39840347 40530305 41450275 42120276 42790322 43130367 43950450 44810420 44950306 0.15 42758978 45239001 45778945 45628853 44678712 43678629 42798583 41908499 41088545 40518699 40848822 41368924 42048940 42758978 && ... WIND ... 0.05 36537496 35677687 35837931 35758112 35278413 35108602 35158676 35448820 36118969 37229149 38589284 39649304 40899273 42219252 46349178 49179237 99999999 44067812 42217826 41807738 41877577 41687440 41257381 40067334 0.05 31201153 32331188 32821200 33261178 33481128 33281052 32771005 32010939 31020889 0.05 44479953 43039832 41909747 41069723 39719755 39119809 38639920 38320009 38010114 38130273 41110544 42710585 44390597 46070487 46340383 46050157 45470048 44479953 0.15 39030123 38770175 38750244 39230313 40090351 40730342 41120325 41700329 42070339 42460368 42840403 43370436 44140466 45000407 45060332 44750226 44410155 43260098 42370066 41330046 40290049 39030123 0.15 42917937 40497942 38868061 37328292 37188715 38759017 40259133 42309164 44409103 46098900 46658751 46968600 47198403 0.30 42968370 42358312 41088318 39718426 39118552 39318734 39798836 40438949 41389005 42409028 43469039 44388937 44518805 44318684 43778535 43418438 42968370 CIG1 42619981 39239993 38300109 38240202 38310293 39670401 41060455 43620506 44770491 45650487 46130457 46330365 46160267 45620173 44910102 44220062 42619981 CIG1 42269153 44089067 45208917 45418750 45318641 44428504 42188298 40608299 39888322 39268383 38578574 38668781 39418969 40419127 42269153 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... ENH 44388937 44518805 44318684 43418438 42968370 42338312 41088318 39718426 39118552 39318734 40438949 41389005 42409028 43469039 44388937 SLGT 45000407 45060332 44750226 44410155 43260098 42370066 41330046 40290049 39030123 38770175 38750244 39230313 40090351 40730342 41120325 42070339 42840403 43370436 44140466 45000407 SLGT 42917937 40497942 38868061 37328292 37188715 38759017 40259133 42309164 44409103 46098900 46658751 46968600 47158440 MRGL 31201153 32821200 33261178 33481128 33281052 32010939 31020889 MRGL 44067812 42217826 41807738 41877577 41687440 41257381 40067334 99999999 36457515 35677687 35837931 35758112 35278413 35108602 35158676 35448820 36118969 37229149 38589284 39649304 40899273 46349178 48969233 MRGL 46070487 46340383 46050157 45470048 44479953 41909747 41069723 39719755 39119809 38320009 38010114 38130273 41110544 42710585 44390597 46070487 TSTM 31551334 32181326 32941322 33801353 34711420 36091481 37521446 38651443 39121485 39641561 40161572 40541529 40721469 40541402 40231343 40211299 40541268 41161259 42011259 42941319 43851339 44611284 45391232 46391181 47540995 48510667 48830398 48210134 46599919 45779833 45009784 44119766 43209756 42619747 42129700 42009625 42049543 42199452 42409391 42809356 43389331 44119320 44929330 46139362 49879432 99999999 47756904 43417158 40167266 40027303 99999999 29079353 30269329 32879206 34499109 35589101 36369136 37019220 37689351 38129463 38219657 37909782 37149998 36080153 34870322 33020454 30030549 && THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CWA 0 - GRB 30 W MBL 15 WSW MBS 0 - FNT 15 ENE DTW 25 E FDY 15 S DAY 65 N SDF 10 S HUF 20 SSE PIA 25 ESE MLI 20 E DBQ 20 NNW LNR 30 SSE CWA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 2WX 35 SSE 2WX 60 NNW PHP 25 N PHP 35 NW VTN 35 S VTN 20 NE LBF 10 NE MCK 35 SE GLD 40 S GLD 35 SSW ITR 30 E LIC 15 WSW AKO 35 SW SNY 15 W SNY 15 NE BFF 55 N TOR 65 NE DGW 45 ESE GCC 50 SW 2WX THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 15 N LBE 40 W EKN 30 ESE JKL 35 S OWB 10 SSW ALN 20 NNW UIN 30 N CID 40 NNE LSE 40 NE RHI 10 NNE MQT 80 ENE MQT 45 N ANJ THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW TUS 40 S PHX 20 SE PHX 45 E PHX 60 WNW SAD 40 NNE DUG 50 SE DUG THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW ROC 35 NNE BFD 35 SW ELM 25 SSE BGM 20 E MSV 25 S POU 45 SSE JFK ...CONT... 60 ENE ECG 45 NNE EWN 30 W RDU 15 E HKY 40 S TYS 45 W CHA 35 N HSV 40 ESE MKL 20 WNW DYR 40 NNE UNO 35 WSW COU 30 ESE CDJ 20 SW OTM 40 SSE DLH 55 ENE INL THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BHK 20 E BHK 30 ENE Y22 0 - MBG 50 NNW 9V9 0 - OFK 30 SSE OLU 15 NNE CNK 30 NW SLN 40 N DDC 25 WNW GCK 0 - LAA 20 SE LAR 25 W DGW 20 W GCC 35 SW BHK GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSW GBN 60 SSW GBN 30 W GBN 75 NW GBN 25 E EED 20 E LAS 10 SSE P38 50 SSE ELY 10 S ELY 20 ENE P68 45 S EKO 30 SE EKO 35 W ENV 10 S ENV 25 W DPG 0 - DPG 30 NNE DPG 30 W OGD 20 SW MLD 30 W PIH 50 ENE SUN 25 W MQM 15 NE DLN 15 SSE HLN 40 NNW LWT 20 N GGW 50 NNW ISN 0 - MOT 35 SW JMS 25 N ABR 35 W ATY 30 NE MHE 20 NNW YKN 20 SSW YKN 25 ENE OFK 15 NNW TQE 0 - DNS 30 SSW FOD 20 SE FOD 25 SSW MCW 15 N MCW 35 WNW RST 0 - MSP 30 SE BRD 80 NE RRT ...CONT... 75 NW CAR 15 NNW CON 50 SSE ISP 55 S ISP ...CONT... 70 SSE BPT 10 NNW LCH 25 N MLU 55 ENE PBF 25 SW JBR 30 WNW ARG 25 NW UNO 35 NNW SGF 50 S OJC 25 WSW EMP 10 SSE HUT 45 S DDC 25 NNW BGD 30 SE TCC 20 S ROW 90 WSW MRF