Mesoscale Discussion 2065
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of central and eastern South Carolina and North Carolina from late morning through early afternoon. These storms may produce wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 211414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211413 NCZ000-SCZ000-211645- Mesoscale Discussion 2065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0913 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Areas affected...parts of central and eastern South Carolina and North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211413Z - 211645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated damaging wind gusts is expected to increase by late morning into early afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing as of 14Z from south through east of Columbia, SC with additional agitated cumulus observed along a quasi-stationary boundary extending into eastern NC. The 12z MHX and CHS soundings sampled a very moist air mass, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and precipitable water values of 2.1-2.2 inches, which are contributing to moderate to strong instability when modified for current surface conditions. While forcing for ascent attendant to an MCV currently located over far western NC is expected to remain to the north of the region, the presence of the surface front and negligible capping in the observed soundings should allow for a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity through the remainder of the morning into early afternoon. Vertical shear is expected to remain weak, which will limit the organization and longevity of individual storms. Nonetheless, degree of instability will support locally intense pulse-type storms with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts increasing by late morning into early afternoon. ..Mead/Smith.. 08/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35067689 34307856 33607983 33088102 33238156 33708194 34558112 35547918 35977792 35897712 35657692 35067689 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH