Mesoscale Discussion 1313
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe downburst winds with potential gusts up to 70 mph may occur across Utah through the early evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 252004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252004 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-252200- Mesoscale Discussion 1313 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Areas affected...Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252004Z - 252200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Severe downburst winds will be possible through early evening. However, this threat should be sufficiently scattered to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Regional radar and GOES IR imagery depicts steady strengthening of convection across eastern NV into central and northwest UT. Concurrently, mostly clear skies and strong diurnal heating downstream has allowed for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s, which has nearly eliminated MLCIN based on the 18 UTC SLC sounding. This RAOB also depicted a fairly dry boundary layer with 0-3 km lapse rates of nearly 9 C/km that will be favorable for downdraft accelerations and strong to severe downburst winds. Consequently, the potential for severe wind gusts should increase over the next few hours as developing convection continues to intensify and spreads east/northeast through early evening. Latest time-lagged ensemble guidance appears to be capturing current convective trends well and suggests that convective coverage should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance, but gusts up to 60-70 mph appear possible with the strongest storms. ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...PIH...LKN... LAT...LON 37870972 37720996 37681015 37721055 37821084 38051102 38401119 38601150 38671190 38681240 38681271 38771304 38911353 39181384 39571407 40111410 40791400 41591355 41931319 42091258 42001201 41701154 41201143 40491101 39851017 39270965 38760946 38160954 37870972