Day 2 Convective Outlook

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Issued: 2026-09-22 05:39 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-09-23 12:00 – 2026-09-24 12:00 UTC

Summary

No severe thunderstorms are expected tomorrow, though a small chance of localized hail or strong gusts may occur along the southern Appalachians, particularly in eastern Tennessee, during the afternoon.

Product Text

000 ACUS02 KWNS 220539 SWODY2 SPC AC 220537 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds over the Plains states, and an upper trough gradually amplifies over the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will build over the northeastern U.S. and Interior West, limiting severe thunderstorm potential. One small exception may be along the windward side of the southern Appalachians, particularly over eastern TN. Here, a surface inverted trough will allow low-level moisture to advect northward, with mid 60s F dewpoints boosting MLCAPE to near 1000 J/kg (albeit tall and thin profiles). A mid-level impulse and accompanying 30+ kt 500 mb jet will yield modestly elongated hodographs and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. CAM guidance consensus depicts pulse cellular and multicellular development by afternoon. An instance of hail approaching 1 inch in diameter or a strong gust causing tree/wire damage cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026 $$