Mesoscale Discussion 2325
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Marginally severe hail and isolated severe wind gusts are possible across northern Utah and southeast Idaho this afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 222035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222034 UTZ000-IDZ000-222230- Mesoscale Discussion 2325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Areas affected...Northern Utah into southeast Idaho Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222034Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon. Overall severe coverage should remain too limited for a watch. DISCUSSION...A compact upper low is evident on water vapor imagery along northern portions of the Utah/Nevada border. Lift from this feature is promoting scattered convection across northern/eastern portions of the Great Basin this afternoon. Some activity near the Great Salt Lake has intensified during the last half hour. With additional heating, other storms may similarly increase in strength. The strongest shear exists in eastern Utah/western Colorado where the mid-level jet core is located. However, these areas have remained cooler/less unstable. Severe potential will likely be maximized along the northwest periphery of the mid-level jet where MLCAPE has risen to 500-750 J/kg. Temperatures near the upper low are cold enough to support marginally severe hail despite weaker shear. Isolated severe gusts are also possible. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 39891274 39921351 40691376 41561318 42441190 42471152 42181130 41251136 40121240 39891274 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN