Mesoscale Discussion 1514
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated thunderstorms with the potential for severe wind gusts up to 70 mph may develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, including Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware, through this evening. The timing and exact location of these storms remain uncertain as monitoring continues for potential consolidation of wind threats.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 052200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052200 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-060000- Mesoscale Discussion 1514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052200Z - 060000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored across the Mid-Atlantic region. While isolated convection continues to develop, watch issuance is possible if/when more consolidated clusters begin to emerge. DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have depicted a slight uptick in isolated to widely scattered convection from northern VA into MD and central PA. Latest GOES imagery also depicts several areas of building cumulus north of the Washington D.C. area along a weak surface confluence axis. A recent 20 UTC sounding from KIAD sampled a weakly capped, but buoyant, profile, which hints that further thunderstorm development is possible within the next couple of hours along the confluence axes. Although MLCAPE sampled by the RAOB is less than depicted by recent mesoanalyses, MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg likely exist across northern VA into southeast PA and southern NJ based on surface observations. Additionally, easterly low-level flow is supporting around 20-25 knots of effective bulk shear, which may be sufficient for semi-organized clusters capable of strong/severe winds. Although isolated convection is ongoing, it remains unclear precisely when and where upscale growth will occur in the coming hours before the onset of nocturnal cooling. A cluster of storms near the State College, PA area may pose the best chance for upscale growth/clustering in the next 1-2 hours and could pose a greater severe wind threat downstream into central NJ. Elsewhere, confidence is more limited if/when such clustering will occur. Trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance may be needed if a more focused wind threat emerges. ..Moore.. 07/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38247624 38007660 37877704 37887735 38007780 38167811 38417846 38667875 39017884 39337871 40347791 40597768 40787726 40877679 40907630 40847553 40707502 40557469 40297447 39987446 39607463 39267502 38967542 38617581 38247624 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH