Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-07-21 16:20 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected Tuesday through Wednesday morning across parts of the central and southern United States. An enhanced risk of severe weather is centered over portions of the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, with slight to marginal risks extending into the Plains and Southeast.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 211620 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026 VALID TIME 211630Z - 221200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 35787449 36097631 36877894 36858112 36128476 36658744 37278834 37918800 40408417 42158222 0.02 45507473 44167348 42647198 40727162 0.05 36707449 36667565 36657644 36947730 37367769 38037749 38647730 39217784 39377829 39277959 38418031 37828124 37368359 37168501 37208558 37178598 37248642 37518693 37888689 38208652 39028532 39988243 40528183 41148146 41618103 41878048 42018001 41987944 41967897 41997855 43637534 43527453 43247381 42627270 42227217 41927214 41397243 41027294 40717337 40067336 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 38627422 38037724 37498084 37038320 35808770 35428992 35699078 36329101 37069046 38458818 40598408 41688241 43168122 99999999 44977701 43357406 41667315 39757254 0.15 38218790 40228319 40968132 42347829 42507666 41957548 41297495 40597471 40097458 39627455 39217492 39017546 38647716 38367891 37638245 37058595 36988718 37298790 38218790 && ... WIND ... 0.05 45647302 44137188 40757092 0.05 34897476 34677763 34388386 34808738 34529019 34889174 35589236 36279228 38978894 41038590 43248195 0.05 41631328 41431177 40741024 40100935 39360907 38560918 37830942 37240997 37091076 37281143 37691237 38031304 38741391 39651431 40541448 41411388 41631328 0.15 44917583 43237378 41697262 39707257 0.15 36307489 35637743 35728295 35898627 35489003 35569067 35889107 36359104 37029050 38738784 40988392 42918091 0.30 37107387 36887593 36687956 36318489 36348667 36408749 36808839 37138854 37538839 37988762 38818604 40888262 42977871 42967711 42707571 41747429 40727316 38847271 0.45 38147418 37847519 37447670 37477823 37547892 37927959 38008033 37758194 37578262 37408380 37238492 37278624 37528675 37958676 38398593 38828497 40228242 40778054 41087881 41397638 41427526 41327465 40457385 39727336 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... ENH 38047453 37447670 37547892 37927959 38008033 37238492 37278624 37528675 37958676 38828497 40228242 40778054 41087881 41397638 41427526 41327465 40457385 39837344 SLGT 44917583 43227377 42627270 42227217 41927214 41397243 41267261 40137258 99999999 36257507 35637743 35728295 35898627 35489003 35569067 35889107 36359104 37029050 38738784 40988392 42748117 MRGL 41411388 41631328 41431177 40741024 40100935 39360907 38560918 37830942 37240997 37091076 37281143 38031304 38741391 39651431 40541448 41411388 MRGL 45487290 44137188 40757092 99999999 34877500 34677763 34388386 34808738 34529019 34889174 35589236 36279228 38978894 41038590 43248195 TSTM 31541304 33021359 34721484 35291570 35581694 35621797 35981891 36501951 38282074 39232140 39692179 39952212 40152253 40332298 40562350 41172395 41592408 43082420 44412395 45022374 45332353 45542311 45662234 45592145 45342045 45121987 44981897 45051807 45871609 46481468 46661347 46541182 46181012 45970872 45980776 46080647 46190514 46190448 46160299 46100155 45579999 44579858 42999780 42059758 41509746 40759764 39849890 39689952 39500029 39220075 38790097 38510087 38109990 37569817 37319696 37549523 38419292 39189155 40728914 42248730 43288619 44078564 44938467 45678338 46088239 99999999 29269313 30979379 31949398 33139423 34279508 34819580 35189656 35409740 35799884 36129964 36560095 36680169 36710246 36680291 36460351 36150406 35540430 34810446 34170426 33440385 32870355 32260318 31220221 30890205 30490204 29960208 29700202 29430184 && THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E WAL 35 E RIC 20 NE LYH 45 NNW LYH 15 N SSU 45 WNW LOZ 25 NNE BWG 25 ESE OWB 25 NE OWB 35 WSW LUK 30 ENE CMH 25 NW PIT 10 SE DUJ 30 ENE IPT 25 ENE AVP 25 SSE MSV 15 SSW JFK 60 SSE JFK THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ART 10 SW GFL 30 N BAF 15 WSW ORH 30 SSW ORH 20 WNW GON 30 ENE BDR 55 SSE ISP ...CONT... 60 E ECG 30 ESE RWI 15 SSW HSS 30 SE BNA 30 N MEM 20 S JBR 20 SSW ARG 15 NNW ARG 15 N POF 50 NNW EVV 15 WSW FDY 70 NW ERI THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ENV 70 SSE BYI 20 NE OGD 45 WNW VEL 25 SSE VEL 35 WNW GJT 35 ESE CNY 20 N 4BL 35 SW 4BL 30 S U17 25 N PGA 25 N CDC 55 WNW MLF 35 NE ELY 25 WSW ENV 50 N ENV THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW EFK 30 WSW MWN 45 SE BID ...CONT... 45 SE HSE 10 S OAJ 40 NW AHN 15 ENE MSL 40 SSW MEM 30 ENE LIT 45 S FLP 10 ENE FLP 20 N SLO 40 W FWA 65 NE MTC GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSW GBN 50 W GBN 15 WSW EED 65 SSW LAS 40 E NID 15 WSW NID 40 NNE BFL 25 SSE FAT 35 NE SCK 50 N SAC 40 SE RBL 15 SSE RBL 15 W RBL 40 WNW RBL 35 ESE EKA 15 NNE ACV 15 SSE CEC 25 S OTH 15 SSE ONP 35 NNE ONP 40 NW SLE 25 W PDX 15 ENE PDX 15 W DLS 40 ESE DLS 65 SW PDT 50 S PDT 20 NW BKE 30 SW P69 40 SW MSO 15 W 3DU 10 ESE HLN 20 SW 3HT 15 NW BIL 40 ENE BIL 35 SW MLS 40 ESE MLS 15 SW BHK 45 SSW DIK 30 ENE Y22 20 E MBG 20 NW HON 20 WNW YKN 10 WNW OFK 0 - OLU 40 ESE GRI 60 S EAR 25 NE HLC 25 WNW HLC 50 WSW HLC 60 NNW GCK 40 NNW GCK 25 N DDC 30 NE P28 35 SE ICT 15 ESE CNU 40 ESE SZL 45 NE COU 20 NNW BMI 45 SE RAC 10 NNE MKG 35 ESE MBL 40 N HTL 40 NNE APN 90 NE APN ...CONT... 60 S LCH 35 W POE 35 SSW SHV 25 SSW TXK 40 WNW DEQ 0 - MLC 40 SSE CQB 10 E OKC 40 NNE CSM 15 SSE GAG 35 S LBL 10 W GUY 40 SSE SPD 20 NE CAO 20 W CAO 45 SSE RTN 45 WNW TCC 55 WSW TCC 65 NNE ROW 40 ENE ROW 25 NW HOB 30 S HOB 50 S MAF 60 N 6R6 35 NNE 6R6 10 SE 6R6 25 SSE 6R6 50 SSE 6R6