Mesoscale Discussion 1610
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Sporadic severe wind gusts from high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of northeastern and eastern Montana this evening. These storms may produce wind gusts between 55 and 70 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 130028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130027 MTZ000-130230- Mesoscale Discussion 1610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeastern and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130027Z - 130230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...High-based showers and thunderstorms will be capable of sporadic severe gusts this evening, but a WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 0025 UTC, radar imagery shows high-based showers and storms have developed over parts of northern and eastern MT. Very hot surface temperatures (110+ F) are supporting very deep surface mixed layer depths of the order of 3-5 km. Within this deep dry boundary layer, dry adiabatic lapse rates and strong evaporation potential exist, which is supporting stronger downdrafts and dry microburst potential. Several mesonet stations have shown outflow gusts of45-55 kt so far. This should continue this evening, given the modest buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) atop the deep and dry inverted v profiles. Broader storm organization potential appears limited however, owing to relatively modest buoyancy and dryness in the sub-cloud layer. While some clustering of stronger showers and outflow could develop as they move north toward the Canadian border where buoyancy is larger, a WW appears unlikely given the lack of more coherent convective organization. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47351203 48931016 49070973 49040499 47930620 47100805 46491028 46251125 46591184 47351203 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH