Day 1 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds or brief tornadoes are expected across parts of central Texas, southern and central Arizona, southeast Montana, and portions of central Oregon and southern Washington through the early overnight hours. The severity is currently assessed as marginal, with risks primarily consisting of localized wind gusts and the potential for a few tornadoes in Texas.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 160235 SWODY1 SPC AC 160233 Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AZ...SOUTHEAST MT...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR INTO SOUTHERN WA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds are possible for portions of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona into the early overnight hours. A brief tornado or two may also occur across parts of south-central Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from the Northeast states with the 01z update. The 00z OKX RAOB indicated ample inhibition, which should suppress convection the remainder of the evening. Despite strong deep-layer northwesterly flow and modest midlevel lapse rates supporting elevated instability, it is unlikely additional convection will develop overnight as a midlevel shortwave impulse increasingly moves offshore over the Atlantic. Some guidance suggests that convection ongoing over southern Lower MI may continue to develop/percolate southeast overnight across Lake Erie and into northeast OH/northwest PA within strong northwesterly mid/upper flow. The 00z PIT RAOB shows steep lapse rates and large instability. However, inhibition should increase with loss of daytime heating. An isolated strong storm producing small hail cannot be ruled out, but overall severe potential appears limited given time of day and nebulous forcing for ascent. ...Central Texas... Rounds of thunderstorms will continue overnight as lobes of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima rotate around the mid/upper low centered over west-central TX. Low-level warm advection will persist through the night, maintaining rich boundary layer moisture, maintaining at least modest low-level instability. Vertically veering low-level wind profiles will maintain 0-1 km SRH around 100-200 m2/s2, and a tornado or two will remain possible. ...AZ... Strong thunderstorms could produce locally damaging/severe gusty outflow winds through late evening. Reference MCD 1628 for information on short term severe potential. ...MT/WY... Severe probabilities have mostly be removed from WY and confined to MT, where modest instability overlaps with strong effective shear magnitudes. Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible through late evening as convection shifts east toward a better low-level lapse rate environment. ...WA/OR... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will persist tonight across central OR into south-central WA. A belt of 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes may provide sufficient support within the weakly unstable airmass for a couple of strong storms. Steep lapse rates will favor strong outflow winds with this convection. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2026 $$