Day 1 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado are expected this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, the Carolinas, and northeastern Georgia. Additionally, isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur early this evening across parts of the central High Plains.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 290102 SWODY1 SPC AC 290100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two are expected this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas and far northeastern Georgia. A few severe wind gusts may also occur early this evening in parts of the central High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Northeastern Georgia... Water vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough extending southward from the lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. At the surface, a 1001 mb low is located over Maryland with a cold front extending southwestward from the near the low into the southern Appalachians. Moist air is present ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across this moist airmass from Delaware southward into eastern Virginia, central North Carolina and far northeastern Georgia. Along this corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is currently estimated to be in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Along and near the instability axis, WSR-88D VWPs from Moorehead City, North Carolina west-southwestward into far northeast Georgia have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2. This environment will continue to support a potential for supercells with an isolated tornado threat. This threat should persist for another hour or two. In addition, RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis have precipitable water values around 2 inches, suggesting that the more organized line segments could produce wet downbursts capable of severe gusts. ...Central High Plains... A mid-level ridge is currently located over the central Rockies, according to water vapor imagery. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the ridge across central Colorado. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent is supporting a broken line of strong to severe storms from southwest Nebraska into far eastern Colorado. The RAP currently has an axis of strong instability analyzed from far southern Nebraska westward into far northeast Colorado, along which MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. As the storms move eastward into the strong instability over the couple of hours, isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 07/29/2026 $$