Mesoscale Discussion 1938
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Large hail is possible across parts of the Nebraska Panhandle and western Nebraska this evening. The threat is expected to be severe, with potential hail sizes reaching 1.50 to 2.50 inches.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 112354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112354 NEZ000-120200- Mesoscale Discussion 1938 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Areas affected...Parts of the NE Panhandle/western NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112354Z - 120200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A large hail threat may continue with supercells across parts of western Nebraska this evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that has a history of producing large to very large hail across southwest SD is tracking southeastward, and should move into parts of the NE Panhandle/western NE in the next hour or so. Other convection is also ongoing along and perhaps just east of a weak surface boundary draped across western NE. Latest mesoanalysis estimates some lingering MLCIN across this region, which is evidenced by updrafts struggling to be sustained with southward extent in western NE. Still, some risk for large hail may continue with the well-established supercell moving southeastward out of southwest SD, as deep-layer shear remains strong. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance, with overall coverage of severe convection remaining uncertain. ..Gleason/Mosier.. 08/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42930273 42940196 42070095 41359994 40789973 40610009 40850121 41220191 42180264 42930273 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN