Day 2 Convective Outlook

Issued: 2026-10-01 16:56 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-10-02 12:00 – 2026-10-03 12:00 UTC

Summary

No severe thunderstorms are expected across the United States on Friday or Friday night.

Product Text

000 ACUS02 KWNS 011656 SWODY2 SPC AC 011654 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday or Friday night. ...Discussion... An energetic polar branch of westerlies will exist over the northern CONUS, featuring a low-amplitude trough progressing from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and an upstream system moving through the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. At lower latitudes, a positively tilted trough initially from the lower MO Valley into the southern High Plains will become increasingly cut off from the higher-momentum flow to the north. At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes through the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers into the southern Plains will advance south, reaching the southern Mid-Atlantic through the TN Valley to the TX Coast by 12Z Saturday. A broken band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing along a substantial portion of the cold front Friday morning. A subset of the early-day precipitation is likely to linger into the afternoon, limiting air mass destabilization in those areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist boundary layer will yield corridors of moderate instability, which in turn will support an increase in storm coverage through the diurnal heating cycle. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak vertical shear are expected to limit severe weather potential at locations that experience thunderstorms. A possible exception is from southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon, where stronger deep-layer shear is forecast to overlie the frontal zone. There, forecast soundings indicate warm mid-level temperatures, which are likely to temper updraft intensity and depth (and perhaps even lightning production). On the condition that sufficient instability develops to sustain surface-based storms, locally gusty winds appear possible owing to the downward transfer of stronger flow aloft. ..Mead.. 10/01/2026 $$