Mesoscale Discussion 1903
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail may develop across northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas, and western Nebraska this afternoon and evening. The primary threat is increasing risk of severe winds, with hail also possible as storm activity spreads eastward.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 102051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102051 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-102315- Mesoscale Discussion 1903 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Areas affected...Northeast CO...far northwest KS...and portions of western NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102051Z - 102315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and hail will increase from west to east during the next few hours. A watch may be needed relatively soon for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are evolving along a lee trough extending from the NE Panhandle southward into northeastern CO, and storm coverage should continue to increase as a subtle midlevel wave approaches the area from the west (per recent WV loops). Over the next few hours, this activity will spread eastward into a a plume of middle/upper 50s dewpoints and steep deep-layer lapse rates, which are contributing to a moderately unstable air mass. This, combined with an elongating and mostly straight hodograph, should support some convective organization/cell splitting. While severe hail will be possible (especially in the earlier stages of convective intensification), the primary concern will be an increasing risk of severe wind gusts with any clustering that occurs. A watch may be needed relatively soon for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39600332 40770330 41620325 42140304 42400259 42430206 42310162 41750126 40630117 39750134 39230174 39130245 39330309 39600332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN