Day 1 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Slight risk of severe thunderstorms including damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will affect portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and western New England through mid to late evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 150043 SWODY1 SPC AC 150042 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity spreading toward the northern Mid Atlantic urban corridor this evening could still pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado or two, before weakening and spreading offshore. ...01Z Update... Low-level lapse rates are beginning to stabilize and the boundary-layer remains only modestly moist inland of coastal areas from New Jersey northward. However, the leading edge of a plume of boundary-layer moisture return characterized by upper 60s to near 70F surface dew points is still contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg across parts of central and eastern Maryland into southeastern Pennsylvania, where temperatures remain near 80 F. With stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent still upstream, vigorous thunderstorm development may be maintained into and across much of eastern Pennsylvania and portions of the lower Hudson Valley through mid to late evening. Low-level hodographs across this region still appear conducive to at least some risk for a tornado, mainly in the more discrete stronger cells preceding the pre-frontal convective line. While the line has recently been weakening, some re-intensification still appears possible, which could be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts, in the presence of 40-50 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. ..Kerr.. 06/15/2026 $$