Day 1 Areal Outline

Issued: 2026-08-16 16:45 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms with a risk of hail, wind, and tornadoes are expected across portions of the central and southern United States throughout Sunday. Various regions face slight to marginal risks of severe weather, with general thunderstorms forecasted across a wide area.

Product Text

000 WUUS01 KWNS 161645 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026 VALID TIME 161630Z - 171200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 36977633 36767664 36717703 36717794 37067949 37658111 37888167 38258217 38718234 39168235 39808237 40178238 40708212 41028159 41068068 40657963 40017775 38907651 38577606 38417574 38047570 37817574 37267603 36977633 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 35890454 36070487 36350532 37040549 37950547 39570535 41000519 42000483 42880470 43510508 44520552 45280552 46170511 46480434 46550351 46130266 45600207 45010145 44650105 44350087 43770081 43130055 41880078 41360191 39520225 38190241 36810226 35950277 35760391 35890454 0.15 36890367 37000458 37760505 38000514 39160511 41120480 41570463 41880418 41980378 41880341 41500313 39570300 38510314 37950310 37330295 36890367 0.15 44430354 44580322 44380260 43710160 43100138 42840194 43040287 43660351 43990365 44430354 && ... WIND ... 0.05 34950241 34910288 34980399 35310475 36250529 38140525 40580500 41630406 42700356 43530357 44510448 45390473 45960445 46230372 46360283 46150180 45910134 45460074 44740029 43999974 42949939 42239975 41380058 40380103 38980101 38260066 37760017 37209974 36649981 35610015 35180059 34960198 34950241 0.05 35437488 35357676 35357805 35437866 36008021 36418163 36708254 36758370 36988672 36828828 36768980 36659065 36579257 36669378 36909421 37429448 37819454 38609403 39349329 39969141 40248781 40618507 41218312 41718049 41537910 40897744 39657525 38567385 0.15 36547518 36717794 37057956 37658120 38008285 37908500 37838833 37789217 38469262 39139223 39509146 39498988 39268762 39608611 40168366 40888193 41078072 41007983 40437850 39257698 37717450 0.15 37080459 38080421 38730309 38290277 36930244 36640249 36370291 36470375 36840435 37080459 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... SLGT 39160511 41120480 41570463 41880418 41980378 41880341 41500313 39570300 38720311 38290277 36930244 36640249 36370291 36470375 37000458 38000514 39160511 SLGT 36547518 36717794 37057956 37658120 38008285 37789217 38469262 39139223 39509146 39498988 39268762 40168366 40888193 41078072 41007983 40437850 39257698 37817466 SLGT 44430354 44580322 44380260 43710160 43100138 42840194 43040287 43660351 43990365 44430354 MRGL 35437488 35357805 35437866 36008021 36708254 36988672 36659065 36579257 36669378 36909421 37429448 37819454 38609403 39349329 39969141 40248781 40618507 41218312 41718049 41537910 40897744 39657525 38787414 MRGL 45280552 46170511 46480434 46550351 46330306 46360283 46150180 45910134 45460074 43999974 42949939 42239975 41380058 40380103 38980101 38260066 37209974 36649981 35610015 35180059 34960198 34910288 34980399 35310475 36250529 37040549 39570535 41000519 42000483 42880470 43510508 44520552 45280552 TSTM 49699590 48999714 47919858 47179904 44799796 43879765 42589763 41679797 40659867 39969875 39379832 39179788 39159747 39559703 40129662 40529601 41349426 42099228 43028927 43538769 44228649 44848572 45638524 46348467 46778408 47078361 99999999 27797992 26318004 25718033 25348083 25368119 25758159 26668213 27028234 28058294 28388309 28518335 28518356 99999999 34950992 34910858 35960700 36840635 37790651 38610680 39620680 40650649 41850605 42400585 42900588 43160618 43200635 42880676 41980775 41100890 40600961 40551057 40581085 40941145 41501224 41671274 41591312 41321338 41051367 40531370 39951374 38991376 38131366 37251351 36331299 35581171 34950992 99999999 31031134 31821083 32321055 32721060 33221088 33461122 33711187 33771318 34061462 34391541 35311635 35761655 36791697 38631733 39671728 40801698 42321694 43011715 43711768 43931837 44011921 43731984 43312035 42852139 42972217 43702251 44302218 44752151 45152066 45901981 46511962 46982001 47222044 47792161 49542306 99999999 47926957 46976884 45147012 44597093 43887240 42957333 42537349 42197352 41907331 41687275 41467221 40697146 99999999 28729240 29729303 30339313 30999302 31959269 32899222 33669103 34138971 33808850 32868780 32268717 31958657 31908594 32018562 32438504 33778436 35218382 35698365 35898384 36008426 36128563 35948724 35808786 34988964 34499142 34399269 34549408 34569574 34499746 34279980 33980172 33300335 32730391 32230403 31840388 31480324 30950264 29930177 29450157 99999999 25409733 26259719 26819666 && THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW COS 0 - CYS 30 NNE CYS 15 S TOR 10 NW BFF 10 E BFF 30 NNW SNY 45 SSE AKO 50 NNW LAA 15 NNW LAA 25 SSE SPD 45 N DHT 15 ESE CAO 35 W CAO 20 NNW RTN 40 WSW PUB 30 NW COS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ECG 0 - AVC 30 SW LYH 10 SSW BKW 30 SSW HTS 0 - TBN 25 WSW JEF 20 N COU 35 SSW UIN 25 SSW SPI 20 SW HUF 35 ENE DAY 25 W CAK 15 S YNG 25 S FKL 15 NW AOO 15 WNW BWI 45 E WAL THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW RAP 40 NNW RAP 30 NE RAP 25 S PHP 45 WNW VTN 60 E CDR 20 NE CDR 35 SW RAP 30 W RAP 35 NW RAP THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE HSE 10 SSW GSB 30 SSE RDU 15 WSW GSO 20 NNW TRI 15 W BWG 15 SW POF 25 NNW FLP 15 SSE UMN 15 W UMN 20 N JLN 45 N JLN 25 WSW SZL 35 SSE CDJ 10 W UIN 10 WNW DNV 25 SSE FWA 30 ENE FDY 30 SSW ERI 25 NNW DUJ 20 E UNV 15 S PHL 50 SSE ACY THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW 4BQ 55 NNE 4BQ 10 NNW BHK 40 WSW DIK 35 SSW DIK 30 S DIK 25 NE Y22 40 E Y22 15 WSW MBG 25 NW 9V9 40 NE ANW 25 SSE ANW 20 NNE LBF 25 WNW MCK 45 SE GLD 25 N GCK 40 SSE DDC 25 N GAG 50 SSW GAG 55 NNW CDS 25 SW AMA 45 NE CVS 25 WSW TCC 35 SE LVS 40 N LVS 35 SE ALS 30 WSW DEN 20 WSW CYS 35 W TOR 35 ENE DGW 55 NNE DGW 10 N GCC 10 SSW 4BQ GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ROX 20 NNW HCO 20 SE DVL 25 NW JMS 30 NNE HON 20 ENE MHE 25 SSW YKN 35 SW OFK 15 WNW HSI 45 SSW HSI 40 WSW CNK 30 SSW CNK 25 NNE SLN 35 NNW MHK 15 SSE BIE 40 NW FNB 35 WSW DSM 30 S ALO 10 SSE MSN 40 S MTW 10 WSW MBL 10 NW TVC 20 W PLN 15 WSW ANJ 25 NNE ANJ 55 NE ANJ ...CONT... 30 ENE VRB 25 S PBI 0 - MIA 45 NNE MTH 45 NNW MTH 30 SSE APF 15 WNW FMY 30 SSE SRQ 20 WNW PIE 40 NW PIE 60 NW PIE 65 NW PIE ...CONT... 45 N SOW 45 SSE GUP 0 - 4SL 50 SSW ALS 45 NW ALS 10 NE GUC 0 - EGE 55 E CAG 40 NNW LAR 35 SW DGW 30 WNW DGW 25 NE CPR 20 NNE CPR 15 W CPR 30 WNW RWL 35 SSE RKS 15 NNW VEL 55 SSE EVW 50 S EVW 30 SW EVW 25 NNW OGD 40 SSW MLD 60 SW MLD 55 NE ENV 30 NE ENV 20 SE ENV 55 SSE ENV 55 NW MLF 45 NW CDC 15 NNE SGU 55 WNW GCN 30 N FLG 45 N SOW ...CONT... 80 SSW TUS 20 SSE TUS 30 ENE TUS 45 NNE TUS 75 N TUS 45 E PHX 20 NNE PHX 65 NNW GBN 30 N BLH 50 WSW EED 40 NE DAG 65 NNE DAG 55 W DRA 40 NNW TPH 15 NNW U31 15 NNW BAM 45 WNW OWY 45 NE REO 80 S BKE 35 NE BNO 30 NNW BNO 45 WNW BNO 80 N LKV 50 NNE LMT 55 NE MFR 45 SE EUG 60 SE SLE 40 NNW RDM 40 SE DLS 60 SE YKM 55 S EPH 30 SSE EAT 15 SW EAT 40 NE SEA 55 NNW BLI ...CONT... 100 NW CAR 40 W CAR 60 NNW AUG 15 ESE BML 20 NNW LEB 30 SSE GFL 10 NW PSF 20 SW PSF 35 S PSF 20 SSW BDL 10 NW GON 35 S BID ...CONT... 75 SSW 7R4 30 SSE LCH 15 NNE LCH 10 ESE POE 30 ENE IER 30 NNW MLU 15 NNW GLH 20 SSW UOX 10 NNW CBM 25 SSW TCL 15 WSW SEM 25 SSW MGM 0 - TOI 25 ENE TOI 10 SW CSG 10 NNE ATL 45 SSE TYS 20 ESE TYS 10 ENE TYS 20 NW TYS 35 WNW CSV 35 WSW BNA 60 SSW CKV 20 ESE MEM 35 NE PBF 25 ESE HOT 40 NNE DEQ 20 S MLC 30 WNW ADM 30 ESE CDS 15 S PVW 45 N HOB 35 NE CNM 15 ESE CNM 40 SE CNM 20 S INK 15 E FST 25 ESE 6R6 40 W DRT ...CONT... 35 S BRO 25 NNE BRO 75 NE BRO