Mesoscale Discussion 1803
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Thunderstorms developing across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota may produce severe wind gusts up to 60 mph and small hail through the afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 301837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301837 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-302030- Mesoscale Discussion 1803 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301837Z - 302030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a diffuse frontal zone may pose a severe wind threat through the afternoon hours across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. However, a limited kinematic environment will likely modulate overall convective intensity/organization and negate the need for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly deepening along a subtle pre-frontal convergence zone across southeast ND over the past 30-60 minutes with MRMS VIL showing steady growth of embedded convective cores within a broader broken line of storms. This more intense convection is being focused within a plume of relatively richer low-level moisture where MLCAPE is being analyzed around 3000 J/kg. Although entrainment is likely yielding MLCAPE values closer to 1500-2000 J/kg, the richer low-level moisture and focused low-level convergence will likely promote further thunderstorm development in the coming hours, especially as the primary cold front migrates southeast. The nearby KMVX VWP is currently sampling a somewhat modest wind profile. 5-7 km winds between 20-30 knots are yielding 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 20-25 knots. While this is generally sufficient for some degree of storm organization, the recent demise of a storm north of KMVX casts uncertainty on how supportive the kinematic environment is for sustained organized convection. Nonetheless, as the emerging cluster continues to evolve, embedded deep convective cores may pose an isolated/transient hail risk, and some degree of strong/severe wind threat is anticipated as storms spread east/northeast down a buoyancy axis and ahead of the front into MN through late afternoon. In general, convective intensity should remain sufficiently limited to preclude the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46749311 45909746 45859827 45889861 46029884 46359890 46749872 47769700 49009518 49309477 48559241 48309224 47939228 47639233 47329236 46919256 46749311 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN