Mesoscale Discussion 1783
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible across portions of West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and southern Delaware this afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 281805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281804 MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-282000- Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...northern/central Virginia...and southern Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 281804Z - 282000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon. Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching cold front across West Virginia, mostly sunny skies across portions of northern/central Virginia has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. Steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE are noted across the region as a result. Strong mid-level flow is supporting deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Flow is generally perpendicular to the front, which may support a mix of clusters and supercell structures. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support potential for downward momentum transfer and damaging wind. With any supercell structures that can maintain, large hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible. More modest low-level shear may somewhat limit the tornado potential initially, though the low-level jet may increase into the late afternoon. A watch will be needed soon to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39547882 39318019 38388081 38048006 36987787 36677684 36647594 37217539 38307509 38607506 38887566 39547882 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN