Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible across the southern High Plains, New Mexico, and southeast Arizona through this evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 011254 SWODY1 SPC AC 011252 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon into evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, New Mexico, and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A positive-tilt mid-level trough will drift east-southeastward from the middle Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. A surface low will similarly develop eastward across Illinois/Indiana, with some uncertainty regarding the northward effective extent of a narrow warm sector owing to cyclone occlusion and residual early day convection and cloud cover. The moist air mass should moderately destabilize across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon ahead of the front, with more modest/uncertain destabilization progressively northward into and across Indiana/western Ohio. Scattered clusters of storms are expected to develop initially across Indiana/Kentucky this afternoon, and a bit later southward into Tennessee/Alabama. The strongest effective shear, upwards of 35 kt, is generally expected across Kentucky into Indiana/Ohio, although a low-to-mid-tropospheric flow weakness will tend to persist. Deep-layer winds will tend to be stronger overall across the Tennessee Valley, but a near-surface westerly flow component will reduce effective shear (20-25 kt). Damaging winds are the most probable risk regionally as storms intensify this afternoon. However, pending adequate destabilization, a tornado risk may exist for a time near the surface low/triple point vicinity across Indiana and northern/east-central Kentucky. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate diurnal destabilization is expected coincident with a reservoir of 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints regionally. This will be beneath relatively strong northerly winds aloft, which will aid storm organization/clustering to a degree as storms spread south-southeastward later today, reaching parts of west Texas this evening. MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear around 30 kt, combined with steep low-level lapse rates, will likely be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southwest/central New Mexico and southeast Arizona... Another round of thunderstorms are expected regionally beginning around mid-afternoon, and increasing through late afternoon and early evening. These storms will be influenced by a moist environment/orographic lift, as well as a upper ridge-peripheral belt of enhanced northerly winds, particularly across New Mexico. Some of the storms may produce isolated severe-caliber wind gusts through early evening. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/01/2026 $$