Day 1 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are expected across parts of the Southern Plains, the Ozarks, and the central Plains this evening and overnight. Some severe thunderstorm activity is also possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during this period.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 070102 SWODY1 SPC AC 070101 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this evening and overnight. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... Clusters of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to emerge across southern Plains and portions of the Ozarks this evening and into the overnight hours. Recent radar mosaics and surface observations show the gradual decay of a cluster across southwest MO as the attendant cold pool continues to expand and undercut convection. Some lingering hail, and perhaps damaging wind, threat will persist with this activity through roughly 03-05 UTC given the proximity to ample buoyancy and modest deep-layer wind shear on the south/southwest flank of the cold pool. Further west, thunderstorm development is ongoing across southwest KS and southeast CO along zones of low-level confluence. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated through late evening as convection continues to cluster and grow upscale in tandem with an increase in the nocturnal jet. The past several runs of the HRRR and RRFS both depict the emergence of a loosely organized MCS across this region with the potential for significant wind gusts. Given the trends in both satellite/radar and model guidance, confidence is sufficiently high to introduce focused 15% wind probabilities. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across the greater Emporia, KS area later this evening on the eastern periphery of the nocturnal jet and along the western edge of the MO cold pool. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support organized convection that will likely pose a threat for large hail, and perhaps sporadic downburst winds. A secondary corridor of higher severe potential may emerge across eastern KS overnight, but the expectation for clustered storm modes should act to modulate storm longevity/intensity and precludes higher probabilities. ...Eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota... Convection developing along a pre-frontal trough in southeast ND and northern MN has exhibited periods of strong VII and cold cloud-top temperatures indicative of severe convection. This activity has mainly been focused within a corridor of low to mid 60s dewpoints where effective bulk shear is around 35-40 knots and MLCAPE is likely between 1500-2500 J/kg, based on a combination of RAP mesoanalyses and by modifying the 00 UTC ABR RAOB. Latest guidance has hinted that additional convection is possible overnight as a cloud front pushes east and impinges on this narrow, but unstable, warm sector. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Isolated clusters of strong thunderstorms remain across the region as of 01 UTC. However, most convection has exhibited signs of gradual weakening over the past two hours. Although some localized damaging wind threat may linger for the next hour or so, continued nocturnal stabilization should further limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity and warrants a removal of risk probabilities. ...Western Nebraska/South Dakota... A few attempts at sustained convection have been noted over the past few hours across western SD along a weak surface trough. With the passage of the upper trough axis and the onset of nocturnal cooling expected over the next few hours, the potential for thunderstorm development appears very limited. ..Moore.. 08/07/2026 $$