Mesoscale Discussion 2290
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across portions of eastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri through the next few hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 130020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130020 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130145- Mesoscale Discussion 2290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130020Z - 130145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail and perhaps wind remain a concern over the next few hours. Still, the severe threat should remain isolated, so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple transient supercells and short line segments continue to propagate southeast along an axis of weak 700 mb frontogenesis and to the north of a primary surface baroclinic boundary. These storms currently appear elevated in nature, and have had a history of producing severe hail up to golfballs in size. Over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE precedes these storms, and given stronger mid-level flow overspreading this region, effective bulk shear is over 60 kts. Furthermore, surface temperatures/dewpoints in the low 80s/70s across southeast KS/southwest MO suggests that a potentially surface airmass resides downstream. As such, these storms may remain severe for a few more hours, accompanied by mainly a severe hail threat, though severe gusts may also occur. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37399555 38149624 38599664 38879684 39059684 39139678 39159656 39089608 38779543 38579485 37869380 37199349 36789356 36509383 36449416 36549492 36949526 37399555 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN