Mesoscale Discussion 1578
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and isolated hail are expected to spread through southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the Texas Panhandle this evening. These storms may also reach the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles later tonight.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 102049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102048 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102245- Mesoscale Discussion 1578 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Areas affected...southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102048Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and spread southeast through evening, producing severe gusts or isolated hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating persists from the TX Panhandle into eastern CO, while southeast surface winds maintain 50s F dewpoints. Modest westerlies aloft combined with the backed low-level winds are resulting in 30-35 kt effective shear, with overall steep low to midlevel lapse rates. Notably, 300 mb temperatures are relatively warm, reducing CAPE somewhat. Storms are already forming along the Front Range and into northeast NM, and this trend will continue with scattered cells and clusters expected through evening. Some cells may briefly produce hail, though damaging gusts appear to be the primary threat as boundary layer lapse rates are steep. Storms may make it into the OK and TX Panhandles this evening, where southerly 850 mb winds of 35 kt will be favorable for inflow. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37920217 37540179 37220172 36640166 35890176 35400224 35420313 35710449 36040495 36800485 38180497 38840519 39120503 39210469 38990396 38670294 37920217 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN